Dean Flirts With Category 5 Strength

2 Hours ago, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Dean's minimum central pressure was 930Mb, and max sustained winds were near 150 mph, just 6mph below the category 5 threshold. How Jamaica fairs depends now on eyewall replacement cycles, but none the less; this will likely be the worst disaster in their history, if Dean stays on course.



Unless... This image represents the water vapor in the atmosphere. Whites and grays represent a moist environment, colors represent A LOT of water in the air, and black to sepia represents very dry air. Hurricanes modify their environment a great deal, but it looks like that Dean is about to entrain a lot of dry air in to it's system, which would tend to decrease it's intensity by evaporating some of the water vapor feeding it's core. Maybe. We can't say for sure.

After Jamaica, Dean will be heading for the Northern Yucatan (Cancun) and possibly passing over the Loop Current, and then in to the Gulf of Mexico. I won't pretend to know what's going to happen next week.

(Weather dorkedness... How Hurricanes Form)