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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Hurricane Dean

Hurricane (currently Tropical Storm) Dean is forecast to strike the Lesser Antilles Friday morning, threaten Jamaica or Cuba by Sunday, the Yucatan by Monday night or Tuesday morning, then likely make a final land-fall sometime mid next week on the Gulf Coast:
(Update 8.17.07. Dean is now Cat. 4, could be Cat. 5 when it hit Jamaica)



Latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

THERE ARE SEEMINGLY FEW FACTORS THAT WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER DEAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MYSTERIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE INTENSITY FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.1N 50.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 53.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.2N 57.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 61.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 64.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.3N 71.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 17.8N 78.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 115 KT

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