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Friday, September 28, 2007

Lorenzo

O.K. at 10AM this morning I checked in on T.D. 13 and read this:
T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...
SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT
ANY TIME. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION AROUND
18Z.
At 1PM I read this:
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS JUST TO UPGRADE THE
INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM
LORENZO.
At 4PM there was this:
THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE
MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN
DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...
Now at 11PM I get this:
I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS.
(NHC Lorenzo Archive)
La Nina strikes again.

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